国际清算银行：2025年度经济报告（英文版）

Group 1 - The global economy is facing uncertainty and fragmentation challenges, with growth forecasts being revised down due to increased trade policy uncertainty and tariff announcements [1][26][30] - Structural vulnerabilities include low productivity growth, high public debt levels, and increased reliance on non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) [1][37][42] - The financial system is undergoing significant changes, with a shift from bank lending to government bond markets and NBFIs playing a larger role in cross-border transactions [2][48][50] Group 2 - The next-generation monetary and financial system is focusing on tokenization, which aims to integrate financial assets and transaction rules on a programmable platform [2][55][58] - Stablecoins are growing but fail to meet key monetary criteria, limiting their role in the monetary system [2][57] - Central banks are expected to play a catalytic role in driving innovation while maintaining trust in the monetary system [2][59]