Ge Long Hui·2025-07-08 05:59Group 1 - The rapid development of renewable energy in China has significantly impacted thermal power demand, with thermal power generation capacity decreasing from 66.75% in 2015 to 43.88% in 2024, and thermal power generation share dropping from 75.39% to 64.51% during the same period [1][5][15] - By the end of 2024, China's total installed capacity for wind and solar energy is expected to reach 1.4 billion kilowatts, achieving the 2030 target six years ahead of schedule [1][6][10] - The growth rate of thermal power generation has been notably lower than the overall electricity consumption growth rate since 2024, indicating a shift in energy consumption patterns [1][17] Group 2 - The introduction of the "430" and "531" policies has increased pressure on renewable energy consumption, particularly for distributed solar power, leading to a significant decline in profitability and uncertainty in revenue [2][32][44] - The "430" policy emphasizes local consumption and safety management for distributed solar projects, marking a transition from rapid growth to regulated, high-quality development [33][39] - The "531" policy aims to fully integrate renewable energy into market transactions, which may lead to further declines in settlement prices for renewable energy [2][32][44] Group 3 - The rapid expansion of renewable energy has created significant challenges in energy consumption, particularly in regions rich in wind and solar resources, where curtailment rates have increased [21][24][25] - The utilization rates for wind and solar energy have decreased significantly, with wind utilization dropping from approximately 97% to 93.4% and solar utilization from 98% to 93.8% [24][28] - The mismatch between high renewable energy generation and low electricity demand in certain regions has exacerbated the consumption pressure [25][36] Group 4 - The overall electricity demand is expected to grow steadily, driven by sectors such as electric vehicles, AI, and energy storage, which will help alleviate pressure on coal consumption by 2026 [3][10] - The anticipated decline in renewable energy installations starting in mid-2025 may lead to a turning point for coal consumption in 2027 [3][10]