Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-07-08 07:33Group 1 - Deutsche Bank believes that the strong fundamentals of platinum will continue until 2026, supported by four consecutive years of supply deficits and structural demand [1] - Since 2023, platinum has experienced a significant shortage, and this shortage is expected to persist into the fourth year by next year, providing solid price support [1] - Deutsche Bank projects that platinum prices could reach $1,550 per ounce by 2026, indicating potential upside from their base forecast of $1,400 per ounce [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs warns that the recent rise in platinum prices to $1,280 per ounce is primarily driven by speculation and ETF demand rather than fundamental improvements [5] - The price sensitivity of Chinese buyers acts as a natural ceiling for platinum prices, with China accounting for approximately 60% of global new platinum supply [5] - The rebound in prices since mid-May has suppressed jewelry and investment demand in China, confirming the price sensitivity of Chinese buyers [5] Group 3 - There is a significant divergence in the outlook for automotive demand between Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs, with Goldman Sachs highlighting a structural decline due to the rapid adoption of electric vehicles [6] - Deutsche Bank maintains a more optimistic view, suggesting that demand for platinum in automotive catalysts remains high compared to 2018-2022 levels, particularly due to the strong performance of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [6] - On the supply side, Goldman Sachs expects global platinum supply to remain stable or grow moderately, unless power restrictions in South Africa re-emerge, which accounts for about 70% of global platinum production [6] Group 4 - Trends indicate a shift from gold to platinum as a jewelry manufacturing substitute, supported by rising platinum leasing rates, which are seen as signs of physical shortages [7] - Continuous deficits over the years may have eroded industrial inventories, necessitating some replenishment [7] - Deutsche Bank acknowledges seasonal factors affecting supply, noting that weak performance in the first quarter may be temporary due to adverse weather conditions [8]