棕榈油价格反弹走高 6月马棕油库存增速或放缓

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is experiencing fluctuations, with domestic futures showing a rebound and international prices remaining strong, indicating a complex interplay of supply and demand factors affecting future pricing trends [1][2][3] Group 1: Domestic Market Analysis - As of July 8, domestic palm oil futures opened at 8476 CNY/ton and showed a rebound with a current increase of 2.06%, reaching 8620 CNY/ton [1] - The market is characterized by mixed performance in the oilseed sector, with palm oil futures demonstrating stronger performance compared to other oil varieties [2] Group 2: International Market Dynamics - The Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) palm oil futures opened at 4067 MYR/ton and are currently at 4120.6 MYR/ton, reflecting a 1.44% increase, with intraday highs of 4126 MYR/ton [1] - The expected increase in Malaysian palm oil exports and a seasonal decline in production are anticipated to stabilize inventory levels, supporting prices [2][3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Short-term forecasts suggest that palm oil will outperform soybean and canola oils due to favorable growing conditions for soybeans and a lack of speculative drivers in the industry [2] - The expected reduction in Malaysian palm oil production in June, coupled with good export demand, is likely to slow inventory growth, providing support for prices [3] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Long-term trends indicate that biodiesel policies in Brazil and the U.S. may reduce soybean oil exports, benefiting the price differential between soybean and palm oil and supporting palm oil exports [3] - The overall sentiment in the palm oil market remains cautious, with a focus on fundamental factors and potential policy impacts as key risk elements [2]