市场担忧执政联盟选举失利，日本长债风暴再起

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Japanese Senate election is creating uncertainty in the bond market, with the ruling coalition potentially losing its majority, leading to a significant sell-off in long-term Japanese government bonds [1][3]. Group 1: Election Impact on Bond Market - The yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds rose by 12.5 basis points to 3.09%, while the 40-year bond yield is nearing historical highs due to investor concerns over the ruling coalition's performance in the upcoming election [1]. - Polls indicate that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner Komeito may lose their majority, which could trigger expectations of more aggressive fiscal stimulus, further pushing up long-term bond yields [3][4]. - The ruling coalition needs to secure at least 50 out of 125 seats to maintain its majority, with the election focusing on economic stimulus proposals [4]. Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - If the ruling coalition loses, the new government may favor larger fiscal stimulus measures, increasing Japan's already high public debt burden [4]. - The market is likely to price in a more fluid political situation if the ruling coalition loses the Senate, which could lead to increased volatility and downward pressure on Japanese stocks [3][4]. - The Bank of Japan faces a dilemma in normalizing its monetary policy due to market volatility and election uncertainties, potentially delaying the reduction of its bond-buying program [5].