目前市场的一大风险：压根不信特朗普关税

Core Viewpoint - The market appears to be indifferent to Trump's latest tariff threats, reflecting a belief that these threats may not be implemented or will have minimal impact on the economy and corporate profits [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Trump's announcement to delay tariff negotiations until August 1 and impose 25% tariffs on Japanese and South Korean products, as well as up to 40% on products from 12 other countries, resulted in a modest decline of 0.2% in the S&P 500 index [1]. - The South Korean stock market saw a significant increase, with the Seoul Composite Index rising by 1.5% at one point, indicating a positive market sentiment despite the tariff threats [1]. - Analysts suggest that the market's calm response indicates a belief that the tariffs will not have a substantial effect on economic growth or corporate profits [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors seem to be ignoring the latest tariff announcements, interpreting them as a negotiation tactic rather than a definitive stance on tariff levels [4]. - The market has adapted to the unpredictable nature of tariff policies, with significant structural misalignments observed, as evidenced by the stability of U.S. inflation swap prices despite ongoing tariff threats [4]. - The prevailing sentiment is that the tariff threats are not taken seriously, leading to potential risks if Trump adopts a more aggressive stance unexpectedly [3][4].