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债牛延续但波动加剧 突破仍需等待
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-07-08 08:34

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing increased volatility due to changes in funding conditions around the quarter-end and a rebound in market risk appetite, despite a stable macroeconomic environment with insufficient internal momentum [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data shows stable macroeconomic totals but weak internal demand, which continues to support the bond market, although the downward momentum for government bond yields is limited after reaching previous lows [1][4]. - The official manufacturing PMI showed slight recovery in June, primarily driven by the oil sector, but remains in contraction territory, indicating uncertain demand prospects [3][4]. - The construction PMI has rebounded significantly, supported by recent policy measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and accelerating infrastructure investment [3][4]. Group 2: Policy Measures - The central bank and six departments issued guidelines to boost consumption, proposing 19 key measures and establishing a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly re-loan fund to stabilize consumer expectations [4][5]. - The "anti-involution" policy aims to stabilize prices by promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity, with significant reductions in industries like solar, steel, and cement [4][5]. - The central bank's recent monetary policy meeting removed the phrase "timely rate cuts," indicating a more flexible approach to policy implementation, with expectations for potential rate cuts later in the year [5][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The bond market is characterized by a "generally bullish but limited space" outlook, with continued easing of funding conditions supporting short-term bond market sentiment [7]. - The basic economic outlook is weakening due to declining external demand and persistent pressures on internal demand, leading to uncertainty in the economic recovery trend [7]. - While policies to expand consumption and counteract "involution" are being introduced, they primarily focus on existing measures with limited new initiatives, constraining the downward space for interest rates [7].