小摩前瞻壳牌(SHEL.US)Q2“成绩单”：交易逆风拖累业绩 EPS或现两位数下滑

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts a significant decline in Shell's EPS due to weak trading performance, despite relatively strong cash flow [1][2][3] Group 1: Earnings and Cash Flow - The expected net profit for Shell in Q2 is $4.4 billion, with operating cash flow before working capital/derivatives at $10.4 billion [2] - The decline in EPS is anticipated to be in double digits, primarily driven by weak downstream business performance [2][5] - Cash flow is expected to outperform EPS, with a midpoint of combined working capital/derivatives growth at $2.5 billion [2] Group 2: Trading and Operational Performance - Trading performance in both integrated gas and downstream sectors has significantly weakened compared to Q1, where integrated gas was flat and downstream oil trading saw a notable increase [4] - The chemical and product business is expected to see a significant decline, with the Monaca plant's unplanned maintenance exacerbating trading weakness [4] - Upstream and integrated gas production remains robust, with upstream production guidance adjusted upwards by approximately 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day [4] Group 3: Industry Impact and Comparisons - The trading weakness is not isolated to Shell but reflects broader industry trends affecting major companies like BP [5][6] - The report indicates that the overall market consensus is likely to adjust downwards significantly due to the poor performance in integrated gas/liquid trading and chemical/product sectors [5] - The report highlights TotalEnergies as potentially having the most resilient cash flow among major players in Q2 [6]