非鸽非鹰、判断力强，沃勒是接替鲍威尔的“最佳人选”？

Core Viewpoint - Christopher Waller is recognized as the most suitable candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, balancing between hawkish and dovish stances while adhering to data-driven monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Waller's Qualifications and Market Perception - Waller has gained broad recognition in the market and policy circles for his leadership and economic judgment, making him a trusted figure who aligns with Trump's desire to lower the 10-year Treasury yield [1]. - His approach to monetary policy is characterized by a focus on data, avoiding extreme positions, which has led to a favorable perception among market participants [2][4]. - Waller's communication style, utilizing scenario analysis, enhances market understanding of the Fed's policy responses, further solidifying his reputation as a reliable policymaker [4]. Group 2: Economic Insights and Predictions - Waller has demonstrated a keen ability to anticipate economic trends, such as recognizing the persistent nature of inflation in 2021, which many mainstream forecasters overlooked [2]. - He proposed that it is possible to control inflation through interest rate hikes without triggering massive unemployment, a theory that has proven to align closely with subsequent economic developments [2]. - In discussions about tariffs, Waller acknowledged their inflationary impact but suggested that the effects would be temporary, supporting the case for potential interest rate cuts starting in July [3]. Group 3: Political Dynamics and Strategic Value - Waller's previous appointment by Trump and his non-confrontational stance towards the administration make him a politically acceptable choice for the presidency of the Fed [4][5]. - His nomination could facilitate a smooth transition of leadership, allowing Powell to retire with confidence, as Waller's policies are seen as stable and professional [6]. - The potential for Waller to maintain market trust and avoid significant increases in long-term interest rates aligns with Trump's economic agenda, emphasizing low rates and low inflation [6].