Group 1 - The core argument is that Trump's push for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates is not solely about economic recovery, but rather a strategy to support his tax policies through fiscal dominance, effectively using the central bank as a funding source for the government [2][16]. - Recent employment data shows a non-farm payroll increase of 147,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.12%, indicating that the economy is performing well despite political pressures [3][4]. - The market is currently experiencing a liquidity phase, suggesting that institutions are preparing for future trends, which is supported by quantitative analysis rather than mere technical chart observations [3][4]. Group 2 - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has decreased from 4.55% in May to 4.35%, while the 2-year bond yield is at 3.88%, below the federal funds rate of 4.25%-4.5% [4]. - The interest rate swap market indicates a 75% probability of a rate cut in September, reflecting market expectations regarding monetary policy adjustments [4]. - Institutions often pre-position themselves before significant market events, as evidenced by the trading behavior of certain stocks during geopolitical tensions, indicating that they are well-prepared for market movements [5][7]. Group 3 - The analysis emphasizes the importance of data over narratives, advising retail investors to focus on quantitative insights to understand institutional behavior and market dynamics [15][17]. - The potential for a significant increase in the federal deficit, projected to reach $3.3 trillion over ten years if Trump's tax cuts are extended, raises concerns about the sustainability of fiscal policies and the role of the Federal Reserve [16]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes are highly anticipated, but it is suggested that institutions have already accounted for various outcomes in their strategies [16].
A股冲关3500，关键靠川普的降息阳谋 ！
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-08 12:33