一碗米饭引发的蝴蝶效应：全球债市的“日本时刻”要来了吗？
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-07-08 12:57
法国兴业银行在最新报告中指出，日本即将在两周后举行的选举存在高达50%的可能性引发政府危机。一旦政局动荡，日本国债收益率将大幅上 升。而在当前全球财政赤字普遍飙升、各国长期利率高度联动的背景下，日本债市一旦失控，极有可能引发一场波及全球的债券市场危机。 | | Proposal | Scale per year (JPYtn) | Funding | Impacts on GDP (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ruling party maintains a majority | | | | | | | Cash handouts of 20,000 yen for all citizens | 2.5 | | 0.10 | | Scenario 1 | Additional 20,000 yen for children and | | Increased tax revenes etc. | | | | households exempt from resident tax | 0.9 | | 0.04 | | Ruling party losess a ...