地产图谱｜上半场北上广深杭蓉“撑场”，改善型楼盘热度高

Market Overview - The real estate market in 2025 is experiencing a significant divergence, with a recovery trend in the first quarter followed by a weakening in the second quarter [1] - First-tier and strong second-tier cities are showing stable performance, while third and fourth-tier cities are generally declining [1] New Housing Market - In the new housing market, the transaction area of 120-144 square meter units in 30 cities has reached 30% for the first time [2] - Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai saw slight year-on-year growth in new residential sales, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen experienced over 15% growth [2] - The supply of new homes is decreasing, leading to a shorter clearing cycle as the market continues to deplete inventory [2] - High-priced improvement projects are performing well in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Nanjing, and Chengdu, indicating a strong demand for upgraded housing [2] Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market remains active, with Shenzhen seeing over 30% year-on-year growth, while Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou experienced around 20% growth [6] - However, since May, the market has shown signs of cooling, with a decline in transaction volumes in June for first-tier cities [7] Price Trends - New housing prices have seen a slight increase of 1.16% in the first half of 2025, while second-hand housing prices have dropped by 3.60% [14] - The average price of second-hand residential properties has been in continuous decline for 38 months, with a 0.75% drop in June [14] Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to continue its divergence, with policy factors playing a crucial role [19] - Supply in July is projected to decrease by 30% year-on-year, particularly affecting first-tier cities [19] - The market is likely to maintain low transaction volumes, but a potential narrowing of year-on-year declines is anticipated due to last year's low base [19] - The performance of high-quality projects is expected to stabilize the new housing market in core cities, but overall market conditions remain weak [24]