美银中国股市三季度策略：保持防御姿态，继续看好互联网和金融

Group 1: Stock Strategy - The company suggests maintaining a defensive stance and focusing on bottom-up earnings, as the Chinese market showed mixed performance in Q2 2025 after a strong Q1 [2] - Investors are less concerned about geopolitical tensions and have low expectations for large-scale stimulus policies, but believe China will solidify its economic growth and market performance [2] - The company plans to avoid sectors heavily reliant on policy stimulus or exports in Q3 2025, favoring industries with better earnings momentum [2] Group 2: Market Performance - In Q1 2025, the MSCI China Index rose by 15%, outperforming global markets, but only increased by 0.7% in Q2, lagging behind global indices such as Nasdaq (+17.7%) and Nikkei 225 (+18.1%) [3] - The current P/E ratio of the MSCI China Index is 11.4, close to its long-term average, with healthcare (+11.5%), financials (+11.1%), and information technology (+9.5%) performing best, while consumer discretionary (-11.2%), real estate (-3.1%), and consumer staples (-1.6%) lagged [3] Group 3: Macro Environment - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of weakness, with no strong stimulus and a slight increase in credit growth from 8.0% in 2024 to 8.7% in May 2025, but a decline in loan growth from 7.0% to 6.7% [4] - The real estate market showed some recovery in late 2024 to early 2025 but declined again in Q2 2025, with signs of weakness in trade, industrial profits, PPI, and fixed asset investment [4] Group 4: Investment Preferences - The company favors domestic demand-driven sectors such as internet and financial services, while the internet sector showed mixed performance in Q2, with entertainment outperforming e-commerce [5] - Banks and brokerages are included in the top 10 list for their potential to provide better downside protection [6] - The company has upgraded the rating for technology hardware and continues to favor the gold sector [7] - Due to profit risks from regulatory crackdowns, the company has downgraded the liquor sector to the bottom 10 for reduction, while remaining cautious on real estate, utilities, and coal sectors [8]