渣打预测：比特币 Q3 或冲 13.5 万美元，年底有望达 20 万

Core Insights - Standard Chartered's report predicts significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and corporate purchases in the second half of 2025, surpassing the second quarter's total of 245,000 Bitcoins [1][2][5] - Key drivers for the third quarter include potential changes in the Federal Reserve leadership and the passage of the U.S. stablecoin bill [1][13] - Bitcoin is expected to reach approximately $135,000 by the end of the third quarter and $200,000 by the end of the fourth quarter, indicating a shift away from previous price decline patterns post-halving [1][2][21] Inflows and Market Dynamics - In the second quarter, Bitcoin ETF inflows and corporate purchases totaled 245,000 Bitcoins, with expectations for this figure to increase in the following quarters [2][5] - The second quarter saw Bitcoin reaching a historical high of $112,000, driven by strong inflows, including $12.4 billion from U.S. spot ETFs [5][6] - The trend of investors shifting from gold to Bitcoin is evident, with Bitcoin ETF inflows significantly exceeding those of gold ETFs [7] ETF Performance - The report anticipates that ETF purchases in the third quarter will exceed those of the second quarter, which recorded a net purchase of 120,000 Bitcoins [6][10] - Total net inflows for Bitcoin ETFs reached $48.7 billion by the end of the second quarter, with a notable increase in the second quarter alone [6][10] Corporate Purchases - Corporate financial departments are becoming a strong driver of Bitcoin inflows, with non-MicroStrategy entities purchasing 56,000 Bitcoins in the second quarter [10][11] - The overall corporate sector is expected to surpass second-quarter purchases in the third quarter, contributing positively to Bitcoin's market dynamics [11][21] Regulatory and Policy Factors - Potential changes in U.S. monetary policy, including the replacement of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, are expected to positively influence Bitcoin prices [13][15] - The anticipated passage of the U.S. stablecoin regulation bill could further integrate digital assets into mainstream finance, benefiting Bitcoin [13][14] Halving Cycle Considerations - The upcoming halving event in April 2024 is projected to create volatility in Bitcoin prices, with concerns about historical price declines following previous halvings [16][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of increased ETF and corporate inflows to counteract potential sell-offs by long-term holders during the halving cycle [21][22]