下半年，如何让钱生钱？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the changing landscape of investment strategies in response to the declining interest rates and the need for diversified asset allocation to preserve and grow wealth in an uncertain economic environment [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Environment - Inflation has significantly decreased, with CPI showing negative growth for four consecutive months starting February 2025, making it easier for individuals to maintain purchasing power without active investment [1][2]. - The interest rate for one-year deposits at major banks has dropped to 0.9%, resulting in minimal returns for savers [2]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategies - Diversification is emphasized as a key strategy in the current uncertain global environment, with A-shares, gold, government bonds, and U.S. Treasuries identified as essential components of a balanced portfolio [2]. - A-shares are seen as the representative of domestic equity assets, while gold serves as a recognized hedge against inflation [2]. Group 3: A-shares Market Analysis - The A-share market has experienced volatility due to U.S.-China trade tensions, with a significant drop in the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.34% on April 7, 2025, followed by a gradual recovery [3][5]. - The market's recovery is attributed to low valuations and better-than-expected economic fundamentals, with the manufacturing PMI showing signs of stabilization [5][6]. Group 4: Gold Market Insights - The gold market has seen a substantial increase, with prices peaking at $3,500 per ounce, but there are concerns about potential declines due to market volatility and changing economic indicators [9][10]. - The outlook for gold is mixed, with short-term fluctuations expected based on U.S.-China trade negotiations and geopolitical tensions [10][11]. Group 5: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has shifted from a bullish to a more cautious stance, with the ten-year government bond ETF showing only a 0.81% increase in the first half of 2025 compared to 8.88% in 2024 [14][16]. - The strategy for bond investments is to adopt a more active approach, focusing on buying low and selling high, as the market enters a period of increased volatility [18][20]. Group 6: U.S. Treasury Bonds - U.S. Treasury yields have risen, indicating a shift in perception where they are increasingly viewed as risk assets rather than safe havens [21][22]. - Recent legislative developments regarding stablecoins may provide temporary relief, but they are unlikely to resolve the underlying structural issues facing the U.S. Treasury market [23][24].