卖地收入增长100%！成都凭什么？

Core Insights - Chengdu's land market has experienced a 100% year-on-year growth in land transfer revenue, contrasting with a nationwide decline in land sales revenue, which has reached its lowest level in a decade [1][2][4] - The national land transfer revenue decreased by 15.9% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a significant drop of 57.4% compared to the peak in 2021 [4] - Chengdu's land transfer revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 44 billion yuan, a substantial increase from 21.1 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [5] Land Supply Strategy - Chengdu's land supply strategy has been pivotal, with residential land supply shrinking by 15% to 20% annually over the past four years, and a planned reduction of 13.6% in 2025 [8] - The core area of Chengdu has seen a decrease in land supply proportion, with only 40% of land supply coming from core regions, leading to increased land prices [8] - The average floor price in Chengdu has surpassed 40,000 yuan per square meter, indicating a shift in market dynamics [8] Population Dynamics - Chengdu's population stands at approximately 21.47 million, with a density of 1,500 people per square kilometer, which supports the real estate market [11] - However, population growth has slowed significantly, with only a 0.19% increase in 2023, suggesting a potential limit to future growth [11] - Despite the population nearing its ceiling, there remains a significant number of residents (approximately 7.6 million) without housing, indicating ongoing demand in the real estate market [11] Market Trends - The land transfer revenue in Chengdu has increased by 543% year-on-year in Q1 2025, making it a standout example among second-tier cities [4] - The top 20 cities in China account for 66% of land transfer revenue, with cities like Chengdu, Hangzhou, and Beijing implementing strategies to prioritize high-quality land supply [4] - The presence of private enterprises in Chengdu's land acquisition has increased, with 12 out of the top 30 land-acquiring companies being private, up from five the previous year [6]