沥青单边大趋势仍取决于原油走势

Group 1 - The asphalt market has maintained a lukewarm trend for two consecutive months, with the upcoming demand peak raising concerns about price direction and space logic [1] - The main divergence in the asphalt market is between the downward pressure on the cost side and the seasonal inventory reduction logic [1] - OPEC+ is accelerating its production increase, which is expected to exert long-term pressure on oil prices, despite short-term support from downstream demand [1][2] Group 2 - The asphalt market has initiated a destocking process, with social inventory decreasing due to construction activities in northern regions [2] - The current low factory inventory rate of around 16% continues to provide solid support for asphalt prices [2] - Although refinery profits have slightly recovered, asphalt output remains limited due to the diversion of raw materials for gasoline and diesel [2] Group 3 - The current crack spread ratio of asphalt relative to Brent crude oil is high but not at extreme levels, indicating a favorable valuation structure [3] - Despite a weak supply-demand balance in the short term, the seasonal effect is expected to support the fundamental valuation of asphalt [3] - The asphalt market's trend is still dependent on the oil market, and a cautious approach is recommended due to the lack of strong upward momentum in crude oil prices [3]