广发期货：国际金价在3450美元/盎司附近存在阻力

Economic Overview - The overall economic activity in the US shows slight improvement, with structural differentiation in employment data [1] - The US non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, reducing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in July [1] - Despite a cooling in US consumption and inflation, the second quarter economic outlook remains optimistic, with moderate growth expected for the year [2] Employment and Labor Market - The US non-farm employment population has exceeded expectations for four consecutive months, indicating resilience in the labor market [2] - The unemployment rate has decreased due to immigration policy impacts, and there are no significant layoffs reported despite tight job supply [2] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has not provided positive indications for a rate cut in July, leading to increased market divergence [2] - Market expectations for a potential Fed rate cut are now focused on September, but trade tensions could influence inflation and affect these expectations [2] Gold Market Dynamics - As of June, China's central bank's gold reserves increased to 2,298.55 tons, marking the eighth consecutive month of accumulation, which supports gold prices [3] - The demand for gold from global central banks has decreased overall, but China's continued purchases provide a stabilizing effect on prices [3] - The international gold price is facing resistance around $3,450 per ounce, with short-term fluctuations expected between $3,300 and $3,400 per ounce [3]