美银：企业韧性是底气 标普500目标看高至6600点

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the challenges posed by Trump's chaotic trade policies, U.S. companies have shown remarkable resilience, leading to a significant upward revision of the stock market outlook by Bank of America strategists [1] - Bank of America raised the year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 5600 to 6300, with a 12-month target of 6600, indicating a 1.2% upside from the closing price of 6225.52 [1] - The strategists noted that while the U.S. economy is performing moderately, corporate earnings forecasts remain stable, providing important reference points for stock investors [1] Group 2 - Subramanian and Hall highlighted that most companies are still issuing earnings guidance, with the earnings per share dispersion nearing pandemic lows, indicating reduced earnings uncertainty [4] - The S&P 500 index has been on the rise since Trump postponed the implementation of the strictest tariff proposals on April 9, achieving its best quarterly performance of 2023 and is close to historical highs [4] - The strategists expressed that the short-term outlook for the S&P 500 appears "muted" due to recent gains, with challenges in finding positive catalysts for continued growth in the third quarter [4] Group 3 - Despite the short-term outlook, the S&P 500 index remains "warmly attractive" compared to bonds in the medium to long term, especially as long-term yields have approached yearly highs again after a decline in June [4] - Subramanian and Hall concluded that the combination of an aging population and persistent inflation creates a supply-demand dynamic that favors stocks over bonds in the current environment [4]