5年后，现在150万的房子还能值多少钱？王健林和马光远观点一样

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China has reached a saturation point, leading to a fundamental shift in supply and demand dynamics, making it unlikely for property prices to experience significant increases in the future [5][7]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The average residential area per person in urban China has reached 50 square meters, indicating a saturation point in housing supply [2]. - The real estate market has seen a shift from a buying frenzy to concerns about property devaluation, with many homeowners questioning the future value of their properties [3][5]. Group 2: Influencing Factors on Property Prices - Supply and Demand: Overdevelopment has led to inventory buildup, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities, where population decline and outmigration have resulted in oversupply [5][7]. - Policy Regulation: The government is committed to the "housing is for living, not for speculation" policy, with plans to introduce 6 million affordable housing units over the next five years, which may divert demand from the commercial housing market [7][8]. - Economic Environment: Slowing economic growth and stagnant income levels are leading to cautious consumer behavior regarding property purchases, which could further pressure property prices [8][10]. Group 3: Market Segmentation - There will be a noticeable divergence in property value trends, with first-tier cities and strong provincial capitals likely to maintain stable prices due to resource and economic advantages, while ordinary properties in less favorable cities may face significant devaluation [10].