美联储货币政策、新兴市场货币汇率与去美元化趋势

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy cycle on the exchange rates of major emerging market currencies from January 2019 to April 2025, revealing a shift in the response of these currencies to U.S. monetary policy changes, indicating a departure from the previous trend of general depreciation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Background and Context - The article discusses the historical context of the U.S. dollar's dominance in the international monetary system and the emerging trend of financial multipolarity, with the dollar's share in global official foreign exchange reserves declining from 66% in Q1 2015 to 57.8% by the end of 2024, a drop of 8.2 percentage points [6][12]. - The research highlights the significant events that have challenged the dollar's status, including various financial crises and the U.S. government's increasing fiscal deficits, which have accelerated the trend of de-dollarization [2][12]. Group 2: Methodology and Findings - The study employs a DCC-GARCH model to empirically explore the dynamic relationship between de-dollarization trends and U.S. monetary and fiscal policies, focusing on the response of emerging market currencies to the latest monetary policy cycle of the Federal Reserve [3][11]. - The analysis identifies four distinct phases of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy from January 2019 to May 2025, including periods of easing and tightening, and examines the varying impacts on the exchange rates of 18 selected emerging market currencies [7][10]. Group 3: Exchange Rate Responses - During the first phase of monetary easing, the U.S. dollar index appreciated by 8.37%, with significant gains against currencies from Brazil, Chile, and Colombia, while some currencies like the Egyptian pound depreciated [8][10]. - In the second phase of quantitative easing, the dollar index slightly declined by 0.89%, but the Turkish lira experienced a dramatic depreciation of 84.86%, indicating a divergence in currency responses [10][11]. - The third phase of monetary tightening saw the dollar index rise by 1.62%, with notable appreciation against several emerging market currencies, yet the overall impact did not lead to widespread currency crises as previously observed [10][11]. Group 4: Implications of De-dollarization - The article concludes that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has increasingly lost its influence over emerging market currencies, with countries like those in South America and Africa showing more vulnerability compared to Asian and European emerging markets, which have demonstrated stronger economic governance [11][18]. - The trend of de-dollarization is further supported by emerging market countries diversifying their reserves away from the dollar, reflecting a growing skepticism towards U.S. monetary policy and its associated risks [11][18].