一半人已亏损，大剧变下的三个房地产新常识

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing significant downturns, with property sales dropping sharply and a disconnect between land prices and housing prices, indicating a complex and challenging environment for stakeholders in the industry [2][8][25]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 2021, the total sales of commercial housing in China reached approximately 18.2 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.91% of the GDP [1]. - By 2024, the sales figure plummeted to about 9.68 trillion yuan, representing only 7.17% of the GDP, with predictions suggesting further declines into the "8 trillion" range [2]. - Despite a 36.6% year-on-year increase in second-hand residential transactions in Shenzhen in the first half of 2024, individual experiences vary widely, highlighting a disconnect between aggregate data and personal sentiment [4]. Group 2: Buyer and Seller Dynamics - A significant 47% of homebuyers are currently facing paper losses, with many homeowners feeling that reported data does not reflect their actual experiences [5][7]. - The second-hand housing market is characterized by a prevailing narrative of "price cuts to close deals," as sellers are forced to lower their asking prices to attract buyers [3][6]. - The market is increasingly polarized, with a booming land auction market contrasting with declining second-hand home prices, indicating a complex relationship between new and existing properties [8][22]. Group 3: Economic and Structural Changes - The real estate sector is transitioning from a growth-driven model to one characterized by structural scarcity, with home ownership rates rising significantly since 2018 [14][15]. - The market is now in a "de-leveraging" phase, with economic pressures leading to reduced consumer spending and income declines, further complicating the housing landscape [7][16]. - The current environment is marked by a shift from a seller's market to a buyer's market, driven by falling prices and changing supply-demand dynamics [15][16]. Group 4: Land and Housing Price Discrepancies - There is a notable divergence between land prices and housing prices, with land auctions in major cities showing high premiums while second-hand home prices continue to decline [25][26]. - The land market is experiencing a "three-stage separation" from new and second-hand housing prices, indicating a complex interplay of market forces [40]. - The increase in new housing supply is negatively impacting the second-hand market, leading to a competitive disadvantage for older properties [42][43]. Group 5: Luxury Market Trends - The luxury housing market remains robust, particularly in first-tier cities, with high-end properties selling well despite broader market challenges [44][45]. - In Beijing, luxury projects accounted for a significant portion of sales, with top luxury developments dominating the market [46]. - The luxury segment is becoming increasingly detached from the overall market, indicating a bifurcation in housing demand and pricing strategies [48][49].