Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have been under pressure, with spot gold trading around $3,292 after a drop of over 1% on Tuesday, reaching a low of $3,287.06 [1] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to optimistic trade negotiations, a stronger dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the complexities of Trump's tariff policies [1][3] - The market's expectation of easing trade tensions has reduced the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, contributing to the price drop [1] - Trump's warning of tariffs on 14 countries, followed by a delay in implementation, has created a buffer for negotiations, leading to a more favorable market sentiment [1] - Japan and South Korea are actively negotiating to mitigate the impact of tariffs, which has further fueled risk appetite and pressured gold prices [1] Economic Indicators - The rise in the dollar is closely linked to expectations regarding the U.S. economy and monetary policy, with recent strong employment reports reducing bets on immediate rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached a two-week high of 4.435%, while the 30-year yield hit 4.974%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [3] - Trump's tariff policies are seen as a core variable in the financial markets, with the actual tariff rate estimated to have risen to 17.6%, the highest since 1934 [3] Market Outlook - In the short term, gold prices are expected to remain volatile due to the ongoing impact of Trump's tariffs and the expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit [4] - The market is advised to monitor the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and developments regarding Trump's tariffs for further insights [4] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates a struggle for direction in gold prices, with a trading range between $3,290 and $3,350 [6] - Short-term movements have shown volatility, with prices testing lower levels around $3,286 before a slight rebound [6] Trading Strategy - Suggested long positions near $3,290 with a stop loss at $3,284 and a target around $3,320 to $3,345 [7] - Suggested short positions near $3,345 with a stop loss at $3,353 and a target around $3,323 to $3,303 [7]
金荣中国:现货黄金小幅延续隔夜跌幅,至3285一线弱势反弹
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-09 05:52