鸡蛋期货交割创纪录！586手配对破历史新高，现货跌至五年最低

Core Insights - The egg futures market has reached a significant milestone with the 2507 contract rolling delivery volume hitting 290 lots and the number of delivery pairs exceeding 586 lots, marking a historical high for single contract deliveries in China's egg futures market [1] - The delivery participants show distinct characteristics, with sellers primarily consisting of large-scale domestic egg-laying enterprises and trading companies, while buyers are mainly institutional investors from Zhejiang [1] Market Context for High Delivery Volume - The 2507 egg futures contract remains in a contango structure, but the price gap between futures and spot prices is narrowing due to recent price declines, allowing egg-laying enterprises to hedge and lock in sales prices through futures [3] - Compared to the spot market's average transaction price of 2.50 yuan per jin, futures hedging has provided enterprises with a profit of approximately 0.30 yuan per jin, serving as an important risk management tool [3] - As of July 8, the basis for the 2508 egg futures contract relative to the national average was -995 yuan per 500 kg, with futures premiums at historically high levels for the same period [3] - On July 7, the main egg futures contract saw a decline of 3.74%, reaching a near five-year low, while egg prices in Handan, Hebei, dropped to 2.44 yuan per jin, also a five-year low, driven primarily by production capacity pressures [3] Supply and Demand Imbalance Driving Price Decline - Supply-side pressures are evident, with the national laying hen stock reaching approximately 1.34 billion birds in June, a month-on-month increase of 0.45% and a year-on-year increase of 6.77%, leading to an oversupply of eggs [4] - The average monthly price of eggs in major production areas was 2.76 yuan per jin, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 10.39% and a year-on-year decline of 26.79% [4] - Despite a significant decrease in the age of culling hens in May and June, the stock of laying hens remains high, with expectations of continued production capacity increases in July, estimated at around 1.35 billion birds [4] - Demand appears weak, as the current season is characterized by reduced school procurement due to summer vacations, shifting to household consumption, while high temperatures hinder egg storage, leading to cautious downstream purchasing [4] - Low-price zones are experiencing delivery and cold storage behaviors, which limit price declines, but this inventory may face selling pressure around September, potentially suppressing the market ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival [4]