特朗普贸易谈判最后期限推迟，鲍威尔不降息的“完美借口”来了？

Group 1 - The uncertainty created by tariffs is affecting the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rate cuts [1][2] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell is willing to wait for clear evidence of the impact of the trade war on prices before making any rate cuts [1] - The likelihood of a rate cut in September is perceived to be high at 63%, but some analysts believe the Fed may hold steady [1][2] Group 2 - UBS predicts that tariff levels could reach around 15% by the end of the year, contributing to moderate stagflation risks [2] - The Fed has raised its forecasts for unemployment and inflation for the end of the year, indicating concerns about economic conditions [2] - Market expectations for a rate cut this month are below 5%, but optimism for a policy easing by December is at 96% [2]