不惧关税扰动！MSCI全球指数创新高，印度缘何表现惨淡？

Global Market Performance - Despite the unpredictable trade policies of the Trump administration, global stock markets have shown resilience, with the MSCI global index rising approximately 10% as of July 4, reaching a historical high [1] - The second half of the year is expected to see continued volatility in stock markets, but a positive performance is anticipated if concerns over trade, tariffs, and inflation ease [1] European Market Highlights - European stock markets have emerged as "unexpected stars" for 2025, with Greece, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary leading global gains [3] - Greece's stock index has surged nearly 60% this year, driven by economic recovery, banking reforms, and a strong tourism sector [3] - The overall positive performance in Europe is attributed to the "sell America" movement, improved economic conditions, and undervaluation of European stocks [3] Investment Strategies in Europe - European defense stocks are expected to provide substantial returns, supported by increased investment and defense spending commitments from Germany [4] - The European Central Bank has more room to cut interest rates compared to the Federal Reserve, which may further support economic growth [4] - The strengthening euro is anticipated to enhance economic momentum in Europe, making it an increasingly attractive investment destination [5] Asia-Pacific Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock indices have shown mixed performance, with South Korea's index ranking first in the region, up over 30% this year [5] - Thailand and Indonesia have underperformed, with declines of 13.56% and 4.74% respectively, while China and Japan recorded gains of 17.72% and 11.24% [5] - The outlook for Asian markets remains optimistic, with expectations of stable economic conditions and attractive valuations compared to developed markets [7] Sector Focus in Asia - Key sectors expected to drive growth in Asia include artificial intelligence, innovation, digital infrastructure, and local consumption [7] - The Chinese and South Korean markets are poised to benefit from advancements in technology and the expansion of the AI industry [7] - The Indian market is expected to see growth driven by manufacturing and consumption, supported by a young population [7] Underperforming Markets - Thailand's stock market has faced significant challenges due to political instability and economic difficulties, leading to a decline of over 13% [8] - Turkey's market has also struggled, with a drop of 7.59% attributed to high inflation and a lack of investor confidence [9] - India's stock market has underperformed with a gain of only 5.75%, but future earnings recovery is anticipated [9]