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全球药企压力山大:未来几年将迎来“专利到期潮”

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is facing its most severe "patent cliff" in a decade, with drugs worth approximately $180 billion in annual revenue set to lose patent protection in 2027 and 2028, impacting nearly 12% of the global market [1][6] - Major companies like Bristol-Myers Squibb, Pfizer, and Merck are expected to be significantly affected by this wave of patent expirations [1] - The current funding model for drug innovation is under scrutiny, as high innovation costs contrast with low replication costs, leading to substantial revenue losses for original drug manufacturers once patents expire [1][6] Patent Expiration Impact - Merck's Keytruda, a leading cancer drug, generated $29.5 billion in sales last year but will lose patent protection in 2028, contributing to a 35% decline in Merck's stock price over the past year [2][6] - Analysts highlight that Merck faces a "huge revenue gap" that cannot be filled by a single drug, prompting the need for accelerated growth strategies through mergers and acquisitions [5][6] Mergers and Acquisitions Strategy - Pharmaceutical companies are increasingly resorting to acquisitions to fill their product pipelines, with an estimated $1.3 trillion available for mergers [7] - Merck is reportedly close to acquiring London-based Verona Pharma for $10 billion as a strategic move to address the Keytruda patent cliff [7] - The political environment poses challenges, with concerns over regulatory scrutiny and potential tariffs impacting merger activities [7] Focus on Chinese Assets - Unlike previous patent cliffs, companies are now looking towards China for acquisition targets, often purchasing early-stage drug rights outside China for later trials [8][9] - The value of licensing deals between Chinese companies and Western partners has reached $35 billion this year, indicating a growing interest in the Chinese biotech sector [9] Patent Extension Strategies - Companies are also employing strategies to extend existing drug patent protections, exemplified by AbbVie's Humira, which has created a "patent thicket" to delay expiration until 2034 [10] - However, such strategies are facing increased political scrutiny, with calls for legislation to combat patent manipulation [10] Biological Drugs and Market Dynamics - The upcoming patent expirations are primarily for biologics, which are more challenging to replicate than traditional drugs, potentially leading to a less steep decline in prices [11] - The FDA is accelerating the approval process for biosimilars, which may change the market dynamics for companies like Merck [11]