摩根大通看好中国“去产能”：将利好股市，尤其是新能源、地产龙头

Core Viewpoint - Multiple Wall Street investment banks are optimistic about China's "anti-involution" policies, particularly the government's capacity reduction initiatives, which are expected to boost the stock market and global trade [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Implications - The Central Economic Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to legally govern low-price and disorderly competition among enterprises, signaling a new phase in the "anti-involution" policy [1][4]. - The government has committed to addressing supply excess in the solar, steel, and cement industries to combat over-competition and price declines [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Impact - According to Morgan Stanley, all industries suffering from overcapacity have stock prices below their peak in 2021, with declines exceeding 50% in sectors like batteries, photovoltaics, cement, steel, and chemicals [2]. - Goldman Sachs noted that traditional cyclical industries such as steel and cement are likely to see valuation recovery and profit improvement due to the shift from short-term production limits to long-term capacity reduction [3][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The anticipated reduction in steel production by 50 million tons could lead to a year-on-year decrease of 6% in output, with profit margins expected to expand by 200 yuan per ton [3]. - The cement industry is projected to eliminate 22-27% of excess capacity, which could significantly enhance industry profits [3].