Hims(US:HIMS) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-07-09 08:02Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains a "hold" rating on Hims & Hers Health Inc (HIMS.US) with a target price of $40, indicating approximately 18% downside potential from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Hims currently has a market capitalization of approximately $9.892 billion, with a 52-week stock price range of $13.48 to $72.98 [1] - Projected earnings per share (EPS) for Hims from fiscal years 2024 to 2027 are $0.54, $0.79, $1.15, and $1.50, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 45.2x, 59.8x, 41.3x, and 31.7x [1] Group 2: Recent Developments - The recent termination of the partnership with Novo Nordisk has raised concerns about Hims' business model and compliance risks [1] - Eli Lilly's legal action against compounding pharmacies has further complicated Hims' outlook, with legal experts suggesting that the lawsuit may take 2 to 3 years to reach a preliminary ruling [1][2] Group 3: Legal and Regulatory Context - Experts believe that the original intent of 503A compounding pharmacies is to provide personalized treatment options for patients unable to use FDA-approved drugs, especially during drug shortages [2] - There is a consensus that the lawsuit filed by Eli Lilly may proceed, and even if current claims have flaws, they could be amended and refiled [2] Group 4: Valuation and Risks - Morgan Stanley's target price for Hims is based on a 3x revenue multiple (EV/S) for 2026 revenue expectations and a 0.08x revenue growth rate (EV/S/G) [3] - The valuation reflects certain discounts compared to other digital health and direct-to-consumer (DTC) healthcare companies, indicating the uncertainties Hims currently faces [3] - Key upside risks for Hims include exceeding user growth expectations and successfully expanding into high-potential markets like weight loss and hormone replacement therapy (HRT) [3]