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市场淡定,分析师甚至上调股市目标价,华尔街彻底无视关税威胁!
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-07-09 08:23

Core Viewpoint - The market shows remarkable calm in response to Trump's latest tariff threats, with analysts even raising stock market targets despite the potential implications of the tariffs [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The S&P 500 index experienced a minimal decline of only 0.07%, indicating a lack of significant market disturbance despite the announcement of new tariffs [1][4]. - Analysts from major financial institutions, such as Bank of America and Goldman Sachs, have raised their year-end target prices for the S&P 500, reflecting a bullish outlook amidst tariff threats [3][4]. Group 2: Tariff Implications - If implemented, the new tariffs would raise the average import tax rate in the U.S. to its highest level in a century, comparable to the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act during the Great Depression [3]. - The tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals are set to take effect soon, with copper tariffs at 50% and pharmaceuticals potentially at 200% [1][3]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Investors appear to view the tariff threats as negotiation tactics rather than genuine policy intentions, leading to a dismissive attitude towards potential trade war risks [3][5]. - The market has developed a consensus termed "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out), reflecting skepticism about the actual implementation of the tariffs [5]. Group 4: Commodity Market Impact - The commodity markets reacted sharply, with copper futures surging over 10% following Trump's announcement, marking the highest price levels since the 2008 financial crisis [7]. - The pharmaceutical sector within the S&P 500 also experienced significant volatility due to the direct impact of the tariff threats [9]. Group 5: Economic Outlook - A recent survey from the New York Federal Reserve indicates that consumer inflation expectations have decreased to 3%, suggesting diminishing concerns about tariffs driving up inflation [6]. - The unpredictable nature of trade policies is causing uncertainty in pricing strategies for businesses, as highlighted by economic analysts [9].