高盛：中国创新药迎结构性重估，出海授权是关键突围路径，夏季将迎来低吸窗口？

Core Insights - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry has transitioned from a focus on "generic drugs" to "original innovation and global licensing" [1] - Goldman Sachs reports that the surge in the innovative drug sector is driven by the globalization of Chinese innovative drugs, particularly through licensing agreements [1][3] - As of mid-2025, the Chinese biotech sector has seen a 78% increase, outperforming major indices [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Chinese biotech industry is undergoing a structural revaluation, with current market capitalization at only 14%-15% of U.S. counterparts, despite contributing nearly 33% to global innovation [3][4] - China contributed 50% of new drug molecules entering human clinical trials globally and holds about one-third of the global innovative drug pipeline [4] - The active participation of Chinese companies in global business development (BD) transactions has increased significantly, accounting for 27% of global transaction numbers and 32% of transaction value in the first half of 2025 [4] Group 2: Innovation and Technology - Chinese companies are leading in the development of ADCs (Antibody-Drug Conjugates) and BsAbs (Bispecific Antibodies), with ADCs representing 70% of global clinical entries since 2023 [5][6] - Oncology remains the primary focus for Chinese innovative drug licensing, contributing over 60% of transactions in the past three years [6] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The summer market is seen as a potential window for long-term investors to accumulate quality innovative drug stocks, as fewer clinical data releases may keep stock prices stable [7] - Goldman Sachs introduces the "PoLS" framework to assess the investment value of licensing agreements based on product competitiveness, clinical data maturity, and potential transaction interest [7][8] - Future valuation increases are expected from successful licensing transactions, clinical data releases, and new projects entering the global market [8]