Group 1 - The US dollar experienced its worst start to a year since the early 1970s, with the dollar index plummeting nearly 11% in the first half of 2025, marking the largest decline for the first half of the year since records began in 1973 [2] - Analysts are increasingly pessimistic about the dollar's future, with few expecting it to strengthen in the coming year, and some suggesting this could signal the beginning of a long-term depreciation [2] - The overall trend for the dollar is downward, according to Brad Bechtel, Global Head of Foreign Exchange at Jefferies Group, who cites three main reasons for the worsening decline [2] Group 2 - The strong performance of international stock markets, combined with uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade policies, has led foreign investors to reassess their risks, prompting them to hedge against dollar risks [3] - Despite concerns about a potential "buyer strike" in US Treasury bonds, data indicates that foreign capital has not yet significantly withdrawn from the US market [3] - Current capital flow data does not show any abnormalities, according to Will Compernolle, a macroeconomic strategist at FHN Financial [3] Group 3 - The market is now anticipating a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with traders betting that a cut could occur as early as September, supported by recent employment data indicating a slowdown in the labor market [4][3] - A rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to further pressure the dollar [4] Group 4 - The Trump administration is perceived to be pursuing a "de facto weak dollar policy," which is seen as a non-tariff trade barrier, particularly by officials from Japan and South Korea [5] - A weaker dollar could enhance the competitiveness of US exports in the global market, aligning with Trump's focus on revitalizing American manufacturing [5] - A weaker dollar may also boost the earnings of large US companies, especially those with significant overseas revenue, as noted by a Morgan Stanley strategist team [5]
美元大厦将倾?三大致命因素正在酝酿“世纪大跌”!
Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-07-09 09:00