LZLJ(SZ:000568) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-07-09 10:35Market Performance - The company's stock price has underperformed the liquor sector by 21% from H2 2023 to H1 2025, with a forecasted PE decline of 45% due to a combination of internal and external cycles affecting revenue and performance growth [1] - The company is actively reducing channel burdens and focusing on digital transformation centered around consumers, while also making forward-looking product arrangements [1] - Current PE is close to early 2013 levels, presenting operational and investment opportunities [1] Competitive Barriers - The company is management-driven with organizational and channel advantages, having achieved breakthroughs through deep reforms during historical adjustments [1] - A large and professional sales team supports market expansion, while refined channel management is implemented based on local conditions [1] - The product lineup includes a full-price range with significant growth contributions from major products, rooted in the "Nongxiang" heritage [1] Digital Transformation - The liquor industry has accelerated channel transformation, enhancing C-end bargaining power, leading to rapid growth in online channels and immediate retail [2] - The company leverages technology to empower the supply chain, addressing production challenges and improving management efficiency [2] - Core terminal growth is projected to increase by 40% year-on-year, with membership assets expected to grow by 60% [2] Growth Logic - The company maintains price and market share advantages in the high-end segment, with potential for volume and price growth as the economy recovers [2] - The low-end products are expected to benefit from the trend towards lower alcohol content, while mid-range products meet daily consumer needs [2] - Short-term focus remains on maximizing cost-effectiveness in key markets, with long-term plans for national expansion [2] Investment Recommendations - Despite short-term pressures, the company's long-term growth momentum remains intact, with a revised revenue forecast for 2025-2027 of 30.59/30.84/33.33 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline in 2025 followed by modest growth [3] - Projected net profit for the same period is 13.03/13.20/14.54 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.9/12.7 for 2025/2026 [3] - The company is expected to maintain a dividend yield of 5.4% in 2025, supporting its valuation, with a target price range of 152.4-166.4 yuan, indicating a 40% upside potential from the current price [3]