Ge Long Hui·2025-07-09 10:47Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings (00700) is currently experiencing a tug-of-war around the 500 HKD mark, with the latest price at 503.5 HKD, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2%. The stock is at a critical turning point, with the 10-day moving average (505.48 HKD) and 30-day moving average (507.83 HKD) acting as resistance, while the 60-day moving average (497.11 HKD) provides support. The divergence in technical indicators, with MACD showing a sell signal and momentum oscillators indicating a buy signal, warrants close attention from investors [1]. Technical Analysis - The first support level is at 487 HKD, and the second support level is at 470 HKD, which are crucial for assessing short-term trends. On the upside, 518 HKD is a recent rebound high, and a breakthrough could lead to a challenge of the 535 HKD level. The stock's 5-day volatility is only 3.1%, indicating a relatively low volatility environment, which may suggest an impending directional choice [3]. - The market sentiment is currently neutral, as indicated by the bull-bear strength indicator. The RSI at 50 shows that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving ample room for future price movements. Although moving averages signal a strong sell, the stock has begun to recover some averages, and if it can maintain above 505 HKD in the coming days, it may reverse the short-term bearish trend [7]. Trading Strategy - In the current technical environment, short-term investors are advised to adopt a range trading strategy within the 487-518 HKD range. Conservative investors may wait for clear breakout signals; a volume-driven breakthrough above 518 HKD could be a signal to follow the trend, while a drop below 487 HKD would warrant caution for further downside risks. Given the low volatility, investors using derivative instruments should be particularly mindful of time decay [8]. Derivative Product Recommendations - For call options, the Bank of China call option 29579 offers a stable choice with a leverage of 14.5 times and an exercise price of 560.5 HKD, featuring the lowest premium and implied volatility among peers, effectively reducing holding costs. The Bank of China call option 13873 provides a higher leverage of 16.6 times with an exercise price of 563.5 HKD, suitable for investors expecting a rapid breakthrough. Both products are moderately out-of-the-money (approximately 11-12%) and are ideal for balancing risk and return [9]. - For bull certificates, UBS bull certificates 68481 and 68650 have redemption prices set at 477.2 HKD and 474 HKD, respectively, maintaining a safety margin of about 5-6% from the current price, offering leverage of 15.5 times and 14 times. These products are suitable for gradual accumulation when Tencent retraces to the 487 HKD support level. For bearish strategies, UBS bear certificate 61324 and Societe Generale bear certificate 60438 have redemption prices between 520-522 HKD, providing nearly 30 times leverage but with high risk, suitable only for experienced short-term traders with strict stop-loss measures [11][12].