Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has returned to the 3500-point mark for the first time since November 8, 2024, marking a significant moment for A-share investors [2] - The index experienced fluctuations but closed below 3500 points after reaching it, indicating ongoing market volatility [2] Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year in June, reversing a previous decline [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.7%, reaching a 14-month high [2] Market Sentiment and Predictions - Current market sentiment is viewed as being in the early stages of a bull market, with discussions about potential movements beyond 3500 points [3][11] - Predictions suggest that the A-share market could reach 3600 points or higher within a two to three-year timeframe, presenting a significant investment opportunity [3][6] Historical Context and Market Cycles - Historical patterns indicate that A-shares typically experience cycles of two years of growth followed by two years of decline, suggesting the market is due for a peak after three years of bottoming out [5][6] - The index has not surpassed 3600 points for over a year, which is considered unusual for the Chinese economy and stock market [5] Capital Dynamics - The concept of capital surplus is highlighted as a driving force behind potential long-term bull markets, with significant increases in household savings and declining bond yields indicating a shift in capital allocation [8][9] - The accumulation of capital surplus is expected to lead to a systematic valuation uplift in the stock market, similar to historical trends observed in other industrialized nations [8][9] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to overcome panic and focus on asset allocation, with a recommendation to consider broad-based index funds like the CSI 300 ETF for stability [10][12] - The importance of maintaining a long-term perspective in investment decisions is emphasized, particularly in light of market fluctuations [10][12]
A股重回3500点,信汇泉总经理孙加滢:这是史诗级牛市的起点,建议“多配重配”
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-09 11:13