货币政策进入平稳宽松阶段，央行下半年或继续降准降息｜2025中国经济半年报

Monetary Policy Overview - The monetary policy in China is showing resilience in the first half of 2025, providing strong support for stable economic growth and high-quality development amid global economic adjustments and domestic structural transformations [2][3] - The policy toolbox has been enriched with measures such as adjusting cross-border financing parameters and implementing a package of monetary policy measures in May [2][3] Policy Measures - In January, the macro-prudential adjustment parameter for cross-border financing was raised from 1.5 to 1.75, enhancing the financing capacity of domestic enterprises and financial institutions [3] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation of 450 billion yuan in March, shifting to a multi-price bidding approach to improve liquidity management [4] - A comprehensive package of ten monetary policy measures was announced in May, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1% decrease in policy interest rates [5][6] Impact on Lending and Housing Market - The adjustment of the loan market quotation rate (LPR) in May led to a reduction in monthly mortgage payments, thereby supporting housing demand and stabilizing the real estate market [6][7] - Structural policy tools were introduced, including an increase of 300 billion yuan for technology innovation loans and 500 billion yuan for consumer and elderly care loans [6][8] Future Outlook - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative, with a focus on balancing growth and risk prevention while maintaining internal and external equilibrium [9][10] - Analysts predict potential further reductions in interest rates and reserve requirements in the second half of the year, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and stabilizing the exchange rate [10][11]