最新降息对冲撞关税高墙，标普6600点押注暗涌

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes are anticipated to signal a potential interest rate cut in September, with Citigroup predicting a more dovish stance from the Fed [1][3] - The core PCE price index in the U.S. has remained below the 2% target for three consecutive months, providing support for dovish sentiments within the Fed [1][3] - Trump's proposed tariffs on copper (50%) and pharmaceuticals (up to 200%) are expected to disrupt supply chains and could impact inflation, complicating the Fed's decision on rate cuts [1][3] Group 2 - Citigroup maintains that the Fed will begin cutting rates in September, with a total reduction of 125 basis points expected by March next year [3][4] - The imposition of tariffs has led to a significant drop in LME copper inventories by 80%, raising concerns about market distortions and supply chain adjustments [3][4] - Despite the tariff threats, Wall Street has raised its S&P 500 year-end target, with Goldman Sachs increasing its forecast from 6100 to 6600 points, indicating a 5.9% upside potential [3][4] Group 3 - The earnings resilience of S&P 500 companies is expected to exceed expectations, with a projected 4.5% year-over-year increase in Q2 earnings, largely driven by major tech companies [4][6] - The tech sector is experiencing a valuation surge, with Nvidia's market cap approaching $4 trillion, driven by strong revenue growth from its CUDA ecosystem [6] - The market is showing signs of vulnerability, with a narrow breadth of gains concentrated in a few tech stocks, raising the risk of a significant correction [6][8] Group 4 - Investment strategies are suggested to balance risks, such as diversifying into equal-weighted S&P 500 ETFs to mitigate concentration in tech stocks [8] - The potential impact of copper tariffs is seen as beneficial for companies like Freeport-McMoRan, while gold and Bitcoin are recommended as hedges against inflation volatility [8] - The upcoming dates for tariff implementation and Fed meetings are critical for adjusting investment positions in the current market environment [8]