楼市开始降温，却为何不见抛售潮？炒房客的噩梦真的来了？

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is cooling down with a 0.7% decline in new home prices across 70 cities in Q2 2025, marking a continuous drop for seven months, yet a significant selling wave has not materialized [1] Group 1: Market Trends - New home prices have decreased by over 8% per square meter, and transaction volumes have shrunk by 25% [1] - The introduction of a property tax policy in 2025 has reduced annual property tax for an 8 million yuan home in Beijing from 16,000 yuan to 11,000 yuan, a 31% decrease [1] - Rental yield stands at 2.2%, which is higher than bank deposit interest rates, leading many to prefer renting over selling at a loss [1] Group 2: Buyer Behavior - Homebuyers who purchased before 2017 are less pressured to sell as rental income can cover mortgage payments, and banks are offering mortgage extensions [3] - The leverage ratio for residents has decreased by 6.8% from its peak, enhancing their risk tolerance [3] - In the current market, the differentiation between first-tier and third/fourth-tier cities is pronounced, with the latter experiencing a 1.2% month-on-month price drop, which is 0.5% more than the former [3] Group 3: Price Dynamics - In core areas of Beijing and Shanghai, the difference between listing prices and transaction prices is 9.5%, yet demand from first-time and upgrading buyers remains stable [5] - Homebuyers from before 2018 are generally not facing losses, with an 18% drop in prices since 2021 translating to a loss of 180,000 yuan on a 10 million yuan property, but most still profit due to lower initial costs [5] - Those who bought at high prices in 2021, making up 15% of buyers, are facing significant financial strain, with interest payments exceeding rental income by 150% [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Historical trends suggest that real estate adjustments typically last 3-5 years, with further price declines of 5%-8% expected in late 2025 to early 2026, but a market collapse is not anticipated [7] - Demographic shifts, including an aging population and a 66.8% urbanization rate, indicate limited new demand for housing [8] - The price-to-income ratio in first-tier cities has decreased from 18.6 to 15.2, making it easier for first-time buyers to enter the market, although investment in real estate is declining as many shift to stocks and funds [10]