特朗普换了鲍威尔就能立即降息？美联储决策机制或成最大阻碍

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's collective decision-making process limits the new chair's ability to implement significant interest rate cuts immediately, despite Trump's promise to nominate someone who favors rate reductions [1][2] - Investors are betting in the futures market that interest rates will drop immediately after the current chair Powell's term ends in May 2026, shifting their positions from contracts expiring before Powell's departure to those expiring after the new chair takes office [1] - There is a notable division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the outlook for interest rate cuts, primarily influenced by the impact of Trump's tariff policies on inflation [1][3] Group 2 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of 19 policymakers, with 12 having voting rights, meaning the chair cannot act unilaterally [2] - Potential candidates for the Federal Reserve chair position include former Fed governor Warsh, Treasury Secretary Basant, and NEC Director Hassett, all of whom have expressed support for rate cuts [2] - Current Fed officials have differing views on the necessity and timing of rate cuts, with some predicting two to three cuts by year-end, while others believe only one cut is needed or that rates should remain unchanged [3] Group 3 - Even with potential vacancies on the board, the Trump administration may not have enough votes to push for additional rate cuts, as support from other policymakers will depend on actual economic performance [3] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is a concern, as significant policy changes require consensus among committee members, regardless of who the new chair may be [3]