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美联储内部分歧“摆上台面”,降息还在多远的未来?
Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-07-09 13:03

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes are expected to reveal internal divisions among officials regarding the impact of increased tariffs on the economy and inflation, which may affect their willingness to commit to interest rate cuts [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Considerations - The Federal Reserve's policy rate has been maintained at 4.25%-4.50% since December of the previous year, with the next potential rate cut being considered at the July 29-30 meeting [2]. - Officials are grappling with the implications of tariffs on prices and the labor market, with some expressing concerns about the strength of the job market [2][3]. - The minutes will clarify whether other policymakers agree that the impact of tariffs on prices may be short-term and the basis for those who believe no rate cuts should occur until 2025 [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Data and Predictions - Analysts expect the upcoming core inflation data to be crucial for the Fed's decision-making, as it may indicate a shift from a low-tariff environment to a high-tariff one, potentially raising import tax rates significantly [4]. - The Fed is likely to restart interest rate cuts in September, contingent on inflation performance and how businesses manage rising costs from imported goods [4][5]. - Economic forecasts suggest that inflation may rise above the Fed's 2% target, with estimates indicating the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index could reach 3.4% by year-end if higher tariffs are implemented [5].