跨境电商大洗牌，谁能找到下一片蓝海

Core Insights - The cancellation of the T86 exemption policy by the U.S. has significantly impacted cross-border e-commerce, pushing sellers to seek new markets while facing increased operational challenges [1][2][5] - Companies like SHEIN and Temu, which previously benefited from the exemption, are now experiencing a decline in user engagement and are accelerating their expansion into overseas markets [2][3] - Emerging markets such as Japan, Europe, and Latin America are being considered for expansion due to their growth potential, although challenges like compliance and logistics remain [3][4][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. has reduced the tax exemption for small packages, leading to a shift in the business model for cross-border sellers [1][2] - SHEIN and Temu have seen significant drops in daily active users, with SHEIN's U.S. monthly active users decreasing by 30% in May compared to March [1][2] - The cancellation of the exemption policy has forced companies to adapt quickly, with many looking towards markets like Japan, which offers lower logistics costs and a high consumer acceptance rate [3][4] Group 2: Regional Opportunities - Japan is emerging as a preferred market due to its proximity, high consumer income, and low return rates, making it attractive for cross-border sellers [3][4] - The European market presents strong consumer purchasing power but comes with complex compliance requirements, such as VAT registration [4] - Latin America, particularly Brazil and Mexico, is showing rapid growth in e-commerce, with expected revenue growth rates of 17.6% and 19% respectively [4][5] Group 3: Operational Challenges - The shift from fully managed to semi-managed models increases operational burdens on sellers, requiring them to handle logistics and customs themselves [7] - The need for local warehousing and the associated costs pose significant challenges, especially in distant markets like Latin America [4][6] - Companies must now focus on localizing their operations and understanding consumer behavior to remain competitive in the evolving landscape of cross-border e-commerce [7][8]