iPhone Recovering Ground in China: Buy, Sell or Hold the AAPL Stock?

Core Insights - Apple has faced challenges in the Chinese market due to competition from Huawei and Xiaomi, with iPhone sales declining by 2.3% year-over-year in Q2 of fiscal 2025 [1] - Recent data indicates a recovery for Apple, with over 8% year-over-year growth in iPhone sales from April 1 to June 22, attributed to strong promotions for the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max [2] - The U.S. tariffs on China are expected to negatively impact Apple's supply chain, with an estimated cost of $900 million in Q3 of fiscal 2025 [3] Sales and Market Performance - Apple has recorded its first growth in China since Q2 of 2023, driven by effective marketing strategies for the iPhone 16 series [2][9] - Huawei continues to lead the market with over 12% year-over-year growth [2] - Apple's Services revenue grew by 11.6% year-over-year in fiscal Q2, supported by a growing subscriber base across its services [7][9] Product and Feature Developments - Apple Intelligence features are being expanded, with new language support and functionalities aimed at enhancing user experience and driving sales [4][5] - New features in Apple Music and Apple Wallet are expected to further boost Services revenue [6] Financial Metrics and Stock Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Apple's fiscal 2025 earnings remains steady at $7.11 per share, indicating a 5.33% growth from fiscal 2024 [8] - Apple shares have declined by 9.9% year-to-date, underperforming compared to peers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet [10] - Apple's current valuation shows a forward Price/Sales ratio of 7.51X, higher than the sector average of 6.57X [13] Conclusion - Despite the growth in Services, the performance of Apple Intelligence poses challenges for the product business, particularly in the competitive Chinese market [19]