美联储多数官员认为关税或持续推高通胀，少数愿意下次会议考虑降息

Core Viewpoint - The latest FOMC minutes from the Federal Reserve indicate increasing divergence among officials regarding interest rate outlook, primarily due to differing expectations on how tariffs may impact inflation [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - The FOMC voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5% for the fourth consecutive time, with 10 out of 19 officials expecting at least two rate cuts by the end of the year [2]. - Some officials believe that a weakening labor market or slight, temporary inflation pressure from tariffs could justify rate cuts later this year [1][2]. - Despite the potential for rate cuts, many officials feel that the current interest rate level is not significantly above the neutral rate, suggesting any adjustments may be limited [2][6]. Group 2: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The minutes highlight significant uncertainty regarding the timing, scale, and persistence of tariffs' impact on inflation, with some officials believing tariffs will have a more lasting effect [1][3]. - Economists generally expect tariffs to raise inflation and hinder economic growth, although current economic data has not yet shown widespread effects from tariffs [3][4]. - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, set to be released on July 15, is anticipated to provide further insights into inflation trends [3]. Group 3: Economic Stability and Policy Caution - Most officials view the overall U.S. economy as stable, allowing for a patient approach to interest rate adjustments, despite some localized weakness in the job market [6]. - The minutes indicate that while uncertainty around inflation and economic outlook has decreased, a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments is still warranted [6]. - Discussions are ongoing regarding the regular evaluation of the Fed's policy framework and potential enhancements to communication tools, including adjustments to the quarterly economic projections [6].