美联储会议纪要：一些官员考虑7月降息，多数呼吁耐心

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among officials regarding the future interest rate outlook, primarily influenced by differing expectations about the impact of tariffs on inflation [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Outlook - A "minority" of officials support a rate cut this month, while the majority remain concerned about inflationary pressures from Trump's tariff policies [2] - The updated dot plot indicates that out of 19 officials, 10 expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year, while 7 predict no cuts until 2025, and 2 foresee one cut [2] Tariff Impact on Inflation - There is considerable uncertainty regarding the timing, scale, and duration of tariffs' impact on inflation, leading to varied opinions among officials [3] - Some officials argue that a weak labor market or mild, temporary inflation from tariffs could justify a rate cut later this year [3] - Most officials believe tariffs may have a more lasting impact on inflation, despite a few suggesting only a one-time price increase [3] Economic Conditions and Policy Decisions - The minutes highlight the increasing uncertainty in economic policy due to changing trade policies and geopolitical risks, although overall uncertainty has decreased compared to the last meeting [4] - Economic data so far has not shown widespread effects from tariffs, prompting debates among policymakers about the timing and nature of inflationary pressures [4] Upcoming Economic Indicators - Policymakers will closely monitor the June CPI inflation data set to be released on July 15 [5] Policy Stance and Future Considerations - Some policymakers are open to considering a rate cut at the July meeting, while the majority believe a cut may be appropriate later this year [7] - Despite some calls for immediate action, most officials view the U.S. economy as stable, allowing for a patient approach to rate adjustments [7] - Recent non-farm payroll data indicates overall employment stability, potentially easing pressure for a July rate cut [7] Communication and Framework Review - The Fed officials are discussing a regular review of their framework, which guides monetary policy implementation, and initial discussions on enhancing communication tools have taken place [8]