晨光生物(300138)：25H1利润改善超预期 棉籽回暖植提向好

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a mixed performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue expected to range from 3.46 to 3.76 billion yuan, while net profit is projected to significantly increase year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery in its core business segments [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company expects revenue between 3.46 billion and 3.76 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.89% to +7.71% [1] - The projected net profit for the same period is estimated to be between 202 million and 232 million yuan, showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 102.33% to 132.38% [1] - In Q2 2025, the company anticipates revenue of 1.744 billion to 2.044 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -0.9% to +16.2% [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The cottonseed business is expected to recover profitability in the short term, while the plant extraction business shows positive long-term trends [1] - The company has implemented a strict lock-in operating model for its cottonseed business, which has led to a turnaround in profitability [1] - The plant extraction segment, particularly products like chili red and stevia glycosides, has seen a year-on-year increase in gross profit, indicating a favorable trend [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the FDA's plan to phase out petroleum-based synthetic food colorings by the end of 2026, which is expected to increase demand for natural colorants [1] - The prices of several plant extraction products are currently at relatively low levels, suggesting potential for stabilization and improvement [1] - The company aims to leverage its low-cost industrial production capabilities to efficiently replicate its successful multi-product development model [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 376 million, 493 million, and 604 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 299%, 31%, and 23% respectively [2] - The company has been upgraded to a "strongly recommended" rating based on its leading position in the plant extraction industry and its strategic growth plans [2]