Workflow
需求进入淡季,沪钢涨势放缓
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-07-10 00:38

Core Viewpoint - The recent emphasis on advancing the national unified market construction and regulating low-price disorderly competition is expected to enhance market expectations for supply-side reforms, leading to a rebound in rebar futures prices, although the upward momentum may slow as market sentiment stabilizes and fundamentals take precedence [1] Group 1: Supply Side Dynamics - There is an increasing expectation in the market for steel mills to reduce production, particularly in light of the recent "anti-involution" meeting and potential production restrictions in Tangshan from July 4-15 [2] - The current steel industry situation is significantly different from 2016, with this year's steelmaking profits reaching the highest level in three years, and the total profit for the black metal smelting and rolling industry from January to May turning profitable at 31.6 billion yuan [2] - Despite the high profits in steelmaking, the willingness of steel mills to actively reduce production remains low, and the overall impact of the Tangshan production restrictions is expected to be limited [2] Group 2: Demand Pressure - The market anticipates a decline in rebar demand as the end-user demand enters a low season, although recent consumption has shown resilience with a weekly apparent consumption of 2.2487 million tons, slightly exceeding market expectations [3] - The total inventory of rebar has seen a slight decrease of 37,900 tons, maintaining a total of 5.4521 million tons, indicating that the turning point for inventory accumulation has not yet appeared [3] - The ongoing adjustment cycle in the real estate sector and suboptimal infrastructure funding are expected to continue to suppress rebar demand, with high temperatures and rainy weather in July further limiting demand improvement [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - Overall, the rebar market is expected to enter a phase of weak supply and demand as the low season deepens, with limited upward potential until new macroeconomic benefits emerge, particularly around the pressure level of 3,100 yuan per ton [4]