下半年铁矿石延续震荡格局

Supply Growth - The global iron ore supply is expected to increase significantly due to new mining projects, particularly the Simandou project in Guinea, which is projected to have a capacity of 100 million tons per year and reserves of 2.4 billion tons with a grade of 65% [1][2] - Other notable projects include the West Pilbara project in Australia with a capacity of 25 million tons per year, and the BAMIN project in Brazil expected to produce 27 million tons per year by 2027 [2] - The total new iron ore production capacity from these projects is estimated to be nearly 200 million tons annually once fully operational [2] Global Iron Ore Exports - In 2023, global iron ore exports reached 1.71 billion tons, with Australia accounting for 52.5% (898 million tons) and Brazil for 23.9% (408 million tons) [3] - Non-mainstream producers have seen a rise in export volumes, contributing significantly to the growth of global iron ore trade [3] Shipping Volume Fluctuations - Severe weather conditions in the Southern Hemisphere affected iron ore shipments from major ports in Australia and Brazil, leading to a significant decline in global shipping volumes in Q1 2023 [4] - The average weekly shipping volume for iron ore in Q1 was 27.9 million tons, down 1.7% year-on-year, but rebounded to an average of 30.01 million tons in H1 2023, reflecting a recovery in shipping activities [4] Domestic Supply Challenges - Domestic iron ore production in China has decreased, with a reported 414 million tons produced in the first five months of 2023, a decline of 9.4% year-on-year [5] - The overall domestic supply of iron ore has contracted significantly due to reduced imports and local production challenges [5][6] Demand Resilience - Domestic steel demand has remained strong in H1 2023, driven by a recovery in manufacturing and infrastructure investment, with an average profit margin for steel mills rising to 54.4% [7] - Steel production has increased, with daily molten iron output reaching 2.357 million tons, a 4% increase year-on-year [7] Outlook for H2 2023 - The iron ore market is expected to maintain a tight balance in supply and demand, with projections indicating a potential supply gap of 1.25 million tons under neutral expectations [9] - The overall supply and demand are anticipated to increase, leading to a more relaxed market condition, with iron ore prices expected to fluctuate within a range [9]