中信证券：盈利、估值优势突出 看好中国铝企竞争力

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Chinese aluminum companies maintain a leading position globally in terms of production scale and business purity, with significant cost and profitability advantages, despite a slight narrowing of these advantages [1][2] - In 2024, Chinese listed aluminum companies are expected to account for 47.6% of the global output of listed aluminum companies, with three out of the top five electrolytic aluminum producers being Chinese [2] - The average EBITDA profit margins for Chinese aluminum companies in electrolytic aluminum and alumina are projected to be 25.3% and 37.4%, respectively, which are higher than the overseas averages by 3.3 and 16.9 percentage points [2] - Financial indicators for Chinese aluminum companies show a median ROE of 16.3% and FCF return rate of 9.9%, both exceeding the overseas averages of 9.8% and 5.4% [2] Group 2 - Challenges faced by Chinese aluminum companies include a narrowing profitability advantage and the need for improvement in resource security and dividend returns [3] - Indian and Middle Eastern aluminum companies are gradually showing profitability advantages, with EBITDA profit margins of 33.9% and 25.5%, respectively, surpassing overseas averages [4] - Traditional European and American aluminum companies hold a leading position in resource availability but lack competitive cost structures, resulting in lower profitability [5]