复旦大学朱杰进：稳定币可能削弱SWIFT体系和美元霸权

Group 1 - The roundtable discussion at Fudan University focused on the relationship between stablecoins and the dominance of the US dollar, suggesting that the rise of stablecoins in cross-border payments could structurally impact the international monetary system and potentially weaken the dollar's hegemony [1][2] - The establishment of dollar hegemony dates back to the Bretton Woods system, where the US dollar became the primary reserve currency due to the US's post-World War II economic strength and its commitment to provide public goods to the international community [2] - The "Nixon Shock" in 1971 marked a turning point where the US detached the dollar from gold, relying on the SWIFT system's network effects and international governance to maintain its monetary dominance, despite a decline in its economic power [2] Group 2 - Following the passage of stablecoin legislation in the US Senate, there were criticisms that such measures could harm dollar hegemony, while US Treasury Secretary argued that stablecoins would enhance it [3] - The traditional monetary phase showcased the clear dominance of the dollar and the SWIFT system in cross-border payments, but the emergence of stablecoins and blockchain technology poses challenges to this established dominance [3][9] - The SWIFT system, with over 11,000 financial institutions connected, has significant network effects that make it difficult to replace, but the current phase of stablecoins may disrupt this advantage [3] Group 3 - Countries like Russia and Iran have sought alternatives to the SWIFT system, particularly in response to US sanctions, leading to the development of their own cross-border payment systems [4][5] - Russia's SPFS and Iran's SEPAM systems were created to mitigate the impact of financial sanctions and enhance financial security, with both countries actively working to connect their systems for improved trade and banking cooperation [6] - The CIPS system in China represents a different approach, focusing on developing infrastructure to support the internationalization of the renminbi and facilitating cross-border trade and investment [7] Group 4 - The stablecoin phase is characterized by a diverse development landscape, where the US does not hold a central position, and the SWIFT system is not the sole player, leading to potential challenges to its hegemonic status [8] - Projects like the mBridge initiative, involving multiple central banks, aim to create efficient and low-cost cross-border payment systems using central bank digital currencies, indicating a rapid evolution in this space [8] - Overall, while the dollar and SWIFT maintain their dominance in the traditional monetary phase, the stablecoin phase may weaken the US's digital currency hegemony due to diminishing network effects [9]