KVB PRIME:一些官员考虑7月降息，多数呼吁耐心

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions regarding interest rate outlook, primarily driven by differing expectations on the impact of tariff policies on inflation [1][3]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decisions - A "minority" of officials support a rate cut this month, while the majority remain highly vigilant about potential inflation pressures from the Trump administration's tariff policies [3]. - The minutes indicate limited support for short-term rate cuts, with some officials believing there is no need for any cuts this year [3]. Divergent Opinions Among Officials - The meeting minutes outline three main factions among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate paths: 1. The mainstream view anticipates rate cuts later in the year, excluding July. 2. A faction advocates for maintaining current rates throughout the year. 3. A minority believes immediate rate cuts should be enacted in the next meeting [3][4]. Economic Outlook and Implications - The Federal Reserve has decided to keep rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, with updated dot plots indicating that out of 19 officials, 10 expect at least two rate cuts by year-end, while 7 predict no cuts throughout 2025 [4]. - The differing views stem from varying assessments of the economic situation, with some officials believing moderate cuts could stabilize growth amid slowing sectors, while others are concerned about the inflationary effects of tariffs and the risks of premature cuts [4]. Market Impact - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve increase uncertainty regarding future interest rate movements, prompting investors to closely monitor upcoming economic data and public statements from officials [4]. - The tension between Trump's pressure and the Federal Reserve's independent judgment complicates monetary policy formulation, with a focus on maintaining economic stability and controlling inflation as core considerations [4].